Wildfire Risk Analysis Report

Executive Summary

SkyTL has developed a browser-based, wildfire risk modeling tool called WindTL, purpose-built to reduce loss of life and property from wildfire threats. WindTL delivers high-resolution, predictive wildfire modeling and situational awareness tools tailored for emergency managers, landowners, and fire professionals. This one-time pro-bono analysis demonstrates the features, accuracy, and strategic value of WindTL in assessing wildfire risk within Osceola County.

Overall Fire Risk Mapping

Before a fire breaks out, WindTL identifies wildfire risk for properties and critical infrastructure. Through a sophisticated simulation engine, WindTL allows emergency responders, property managers, and critical infrastructure operators to display assets and run various scenarios to understand risk and severity under different conditions. Figure 1 below shows the pre-fire risk for typical wildfire conditions in Central Florida’s dry season (November–April). Users may generate dynamic risk maps for any day, accurately forecasting potential risk in high resolution based on weather, vegetation, and topography. In the figure , it can be observed that over 75% of the 8,500-acre region in Osceola County falls within moderate risk (yellow) zones based on fuel, terrain, and weather inputs.

Figure 1: Pre-risk map of part of Osceola County produced by WindTL. Lake Russell is the large blue body of water to the northeast.

Use Case: TNC's Disney Wilderness Preserve Wildfire Simulation

Users may also simulate the effects of a potential fire. In Figure 2 below, a wildfire ignition was simulated within The Nature Conservancy’s Disney Wilderness Preserve on March 25, 2024, at 12:20 PM EDT, located at (28.1197°, -81.4338°). The ignition represents a plausible wildfire start due to dry lightning, fireworks, or reckless behavior.

Figure 2: Simulated ignition location visualized within the WindTL user interface.

This date and time were selected because the environmental conditions are representative of high fire risk. The environmental inputs driving fire behavior during the simulation included:

• Temperature: 77.0°F (warm)

• Wind: 12.7 mph, from the east

• Relative Humidity: 44.8%

Local fuels were mapped at 30-meter resolution, using more than 8 layers of vegetative and land cover data. Local weather is generated by improving upon coarse public weather data sources, including high-resolution wind fields accounting for vegetation and topography, as shown below in Figure 3.

Figure 3: WindTL interface showing terrain-aware wind gridding at high resolution.

All data shown were collected over 8,501 acres with a single button click ("CAPTURE ENVIRONMENTAL DATA") on WindTL, as shown in Figure 4:

Figure 4: WindTL’s one-click data capture system aggregating fuels, weather, and terrain layers.

Fire Simulation Results

Ground Fire Spread

Figure 5 below depicts the predicted 1-hour ground fire spread based on the environmental conditions listed in the previous section.

Figure 5: Simulated ground fire spread perimeter (blue polygon) within 1 hour of ignition.

Ember Cast and Ignition Risk

Figure 6 below shows the fire propagation through the ground, as well as the potential spread and probability of ignition (PIG) of fire-generated embers, one hour after the simulated fire ignition. It must be noted that the Insurance Institute of Business and Home Safety claims that the leading cause of structural losses in the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) are due to embers. For each ember landing point, a probability of ignition (PIG) value is assigned on a color gradient: Red = high risk (PIG ≈ 0.9), Yellow = moderate risk (PIG ≈ 0.4). It is notable that while Bayberry Avenue provides a fire break for ground propagation, even low wind conditions yield significant risk for ember ignitions in the community of Poinciana.

Figure 6: Ember Risk Layer. Overlay includes ground fire spread perimeter.

Active Fire Features

During an active fire, WindTL integrates real-time data from satellites, drones, and IoT sensors to provide early fire ignition and proximity alerts via text messaging, effective evacuations, accurate forecasts of fire propagation and ember ignitions, and infrastructure management suggestions. After a fire, WindTL helps communities and municipalities effectively deploy restoration projects. Figure 7 shows a WindTL analysis of the Palisades Fire in California, on January 7th, 2025.

Figure 7: WindTL ground fire spread and ember spread prediction of the Palisades Fire.

Analysis Conclusions

Ground fire spread was rapid and advanced westward, reaching Bayberry Avenue. Given the east winds and presence of timber fuels, ember spotting potential is significant. Southern Poinciana is particularly vulnerable, with a high likelihood of ember-initiated ignitions, if mitigation strategies (e.g., defensible space and home hardening) are not implemented.

Additionally, WindTL has identified at least seven other high-risk zones throughout Osceola County, available upon request.